Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
